Climate Migration in the Sahel

Introduction

While no internationally accepted legal definition of climate migration currently exists, the International Organization of Migration of the United Nations has put forth a working definition that captures the most important dimensions of the phenomenon:

“Climate migration refers to the movement of a person or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in environment due to climate change, are obliged to leave their habitual place of residence, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, within a state or across a border” (UN IOM, “Environmental Migration”).  

Climate migration can be seen as an adaptive response to the stresses of a changing climate, as populations faced with hazards such as flooding or extreme heat may decide that relocation to a less vulnerable area is the optimal response to worsening environmental conditions. The research literature on climate migration, however, suggests that migration is just one response to climatic stress, and that climate migration is a complex phenomenon that is mediated by other factors, such as the economic and socio-political contexts of the affected populations (Cattaneo et al, 2019). Research also suggests that the migration response will be most acute in those countries with poor “recovery mechanisms” such as social insurance and social protection (Moore, Wesselbaum, 2022). Climate mobility therefore exhibits heterogeneity in its responses and outcomes; mobility can either be voluntary or involuntary, the result of either slow- or fast-onset events, and can result in internal or international migration.

This paper offers a review of the current literature on climate migration and takes a particular focus on climate mobility in the Sahel, the semi-arid transition zone on the African continent between the Sahara Desert in the north and the tropical savanna in the south. The countries of Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Sudan make up the Sahel; notably, most of the countries of the Sahel are designated as Least Developed Countries by the UN, a classification for countries struggling to develop economically with low scores on such criteria as Gross National Income, health and education indices, and economic and environmental indices. (UN, UN List of least developed countries). The economies of the Sahel are primarily marked by agriculture and cross-border livestock trade; given this subsistence economy and history of nomadism, there has traditionally been a high degree of mobility within the Sahel (Cepero et al, 2021).  A projection by the World Bank estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa, which includes the countries of the Sahel, could witness between 30 and 70 million internal climate migrants by 2050, the largest projected group of climate migrants of any region of the world (Clement et al, 2021), underscoring the region’s vulnerability.

The research literature on the effects of climatic events on migration, it should be noted, suggests that the environmental and social factors contributing to a population’s decision to migrate are complex, and that different climate impacts (temperature rise, increased precipitation, extreme weather) have different effects of migration patterns. Robust literature exists to suggest that increases in temperature have a positive effect on permanent, out-country migration; there is less evidence of an effect on migration due to increased precipitation or extreme weather (Moore, Wesselbaum, 2022). When studying the interaction of climate and migration, it is useful to analyze the channels through which climatic events affect human well-being, such as via agricultural and labor productivity, public health, or conflict. Furthermore, a critique of predictions of mass global climate migration has begun to emerge in the literature; Boas et al argue that such predictions of mass migration from the Global South due to climate change are used to push forward with restrictive border security policies among countries of the Global North and ignore the complex interactions between human mobility and climate change (Boas et al, 2019).

Climate Change and the Sahel

In their review of climate migration literature, Cattaneo et al distinguish between fast-onset climate events (rains, floods, landslides) and slow-onset events such a temperature rise, prolonged drought and desertification. Fast-onset events such as hurricanes may result in temporary displacement of populations, with displaced persons often returning to their homes quickly following a disaster. In poor countries, populations may not have the resources to be mobile, resulting in a “double set of risks.” Indeed, other research points to the expense involved in migration; one study estimates that migration to an international destination is roughly four times that of internal survival migration (Cattaneo et al, 2019).

The countries of the Sahel appear to be vulnerable to slow-onset events such as extreme heat and desertification, which can negatively impact agricultural productivity and therefore economic livelihood. But the Sahelian countries are also vulnerable to fast-onset events such as intense rainfall and flooding, since the region is influenced by such climatic factors as the West African Monsoon (WAM). The WAM plays a critical role in determining how much rain falls each year and helps shape the overall rainfall pattern of the region (Pausata et al, 2020).

The location of the Sahel in a tropical zone (between 12 degrees N and 20 degrees N) and the impact of the WAM mean that the region has a prolonged dry season (October to May) and a shorter rainy season (typically June-September). Given the brevity of its wet season, even small variations in rainfall can have big impacts on agricultural production and thus on the livelihoods of those in its subsistence economy. Research literature on climate change in the Sahel underscores the degree to which the region is extremely vulnerable to events like rising temperature, and variable rainfall patterns which can lead to flooding or drought. The United Nations reports that regional surface temperatures in the western Sahel are increasing at a rate that is 1.5 times faster than the global average. By 2050, temperatures in the region may be four degrees Celsius warmer, and six degrees warmer by 2100 (UN, 2018). While there is consensus around predictions in temperature rise, there is some ambiguity in the literature around predictions of more or less rainfall in the region in the decades to come.

Part of the variability in rainfall predictions is due to the gradual warming of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, which has changed the rainfall patterns in the region. These new patterns include issues like delayed starts and early ends to the rainy season, and overall warmer nights and days (Larémont, 2021).  One of the biggest changes in rainfall patterns is the increase in heavy rainfall, particularly near the end of the rainy season. This can lead to crop damage and increased competition for land between farmers and herders. They are experiencing what is called “climate whiplash”, where they experience sudden and erratic rainfall in one season, followed by drought in the next (Larémont, 2021).

About 80 percent of the Sahelian population live in rural areas where access to government support is limited. Most Sahelians are farmers and herders who have managed to adapt to climate changes in recent years, but they might struggle with the expected temperature increases and their unexpected effects. These shifting conditions have made it harder to access food, leading to more migration both within and outside the Sahel, while also putting pressure on governments to ensure security and resources. The unpredictable rainfall has disrupted the timing for planting and harvesting, making it tougher for farmers and herders to plan effectively (Larémont, 2021).

The future of the Sahel with respect to climate change and its impacts is unclear. While it is known that temperatures are rising, predictions about rainfall, flood, and drought vary. Research into past climates shows that the area, which is greatly affected by the WAM, has experienced both prolonged wet and dry periods (Pausata et al, 2020). Some research predicts more droughts, while other predicts more rainfall, and some suggest a mix of both, showing how unpredictable future weather patterns may be. This uncertainty, along with the region’s position in a vulnerable area, makes the Sahel particularly at risk from climate change and because of this uncertainty, it is important for policies to focus on building overall resilience.

Migration Patterns in the Sahel

Climate change has created new migration patterns in the Sahel and intensified existing ones. Harsh environmental conditions, such as droughts, desertification, and extreme weather events have led to declining crop yields and livestock deaths. Anthropogenic activity, such as deforestation, overgrazing, and poor land-use practices, have decreased land fertility, both contributing to and compounding climate issues (Nenger, 2024). All of these factors have made traditional livelihoods like agriculture and animal husbandry increasingly more expensive or altogether infeasible, leading to food insecurity and loss of livelihood for potentially more than 70 percent of the region’s population that depends on agriculture or pastoralism (Dieng, 2022).

Frequent heat waves, reduced rainfall, and erratic weather patterns intensify the struggle for resources. Increased competition for water among farmers, pastoralists, and urban dwellers sometimes escalates into conflicts, such as the 2019 Zamfara conflict that resulted in over 100 deaths (Nenger, 2024). Violent clashes from overall resource scarcity have led to over 15,000 deaths in the Sahel region (Dieng, 2022).

This culmination of food insecurity, loss of livelihoods, and resource scarcity exacerbates poverty and forces more people to migrate in search of new pastures for traditional livelihoods or to urban areas for formal employment opportunities.

Non-climatic factors intensify and aggravate climate migration patterns and, vice versa, climate change amplifies social, political, and economic tensions. For example, the lack of economic opportunities drives migration or forces young men into extremist groups for survival. In addition, jihadist groups exploit tensions between pastoralists and farmers in conflict areas to recruit foot soldiers, further intensifying migration as people seek refuge and safety (Larémont, 2021).

Policy Recommendations

Foreign investment in the Sahel, particularly among the countries of the European Union, is high, making the Sahel an important target for policies relating to aid, sustainable development, peacekeeping, and security. Research literature on climate change in the Sahel offers robust policy recommendations for mitigating climate impacts in the region and maintaining security and protecting human rights. Following a review of the literature, we have identified four high-leverage policy recommendations that should guide international efforts going forward.

Our first recommendation is to develop an international legal framework and integrate a human rights approach to address and plan for climate migration. There are currently no legal frameworks (national or international) that recognize and protect the rights of climate migrants, both internally displaced and transnational refugees (Nenger, 2024). Developing comprehensive policies that incorporate a human rights-based approach and theories of intersectionality will ensure that vulnerable populations, such as women, children, and marginalized groups, receive adequate protection and support. With an anticipated 216 million climate refugees globally by 2050, 70 million of whom will be from Sub-Saharan Africa (Huang 2023), it is essential that we have human-rights-oriented legal policies to address climate migration. We also believe a human rights focus should include a relaxation of migration control measures within the Sahel, since migration is often a coping strategy for affected populations (Cepero, et al, 2021).

Our second recommendation is to provide humanitarian assistance and invest in sustainable development. Providing adequate humanitarian aid, such as healthcare, education, and livelihood support, is critical for displaced populations while investing in sustainable development will “build long-term resilience to climate change and environment-prone displacement” (Nenger, 2024). Further, large-scale investments in transport and irrigation infrastructure is necessary to mitigate the region’s vulnerability to floods and drought. Further, successful sustainable development efforts in the region must recognize the importance  of pastoralism to the region’s economy, and must prioritize efforts to promote pastoralism as a viable means of livelihood. Projects in support of pastoralism may include improved veterinary services, more inclusive credit systems, and improved dissemination of climate information with pastoralist groups (Cepero et al, 2021).

Our third recommendation is to develop and align international mitigation efforts to address the root causes of global climate change, local and regional environmental degradation, and displacement. This includes international, multilateral efforts on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, land degradation, and more. Further, these efforts should include small-scale adaptation efforts, such as climate-smart agriculture projects that aim to increase agricultural productivity.

Our fourth recommendation is to create an action plan for long-term migration and displacement. Countries like Fiji and the Marshall Islands that are predicted to have their entire land-mass sink have created planned relocation guidelines and national adaptation plans to invest in and raise funds for infrastructure development and mass migration (Bittle, 2023). We recommend governments in the Sahel region, such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, to create similar plans to analyze, predict, and gather funding for climate migration and related infrastructure development.

In conclusion, the coming decades will serve as a major inflection point for the countries of the Sahel. Given the geopolitical importance of the region to the United States and the countries of the EU, it is critical that the Sahelian countries prioritize efforts to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, while investing in adaptation projects designed to reduce the vulnerability of their populations. These efforts must be grounded in a firm understanding of the causes and consequences of climate migration, and offer ways of facilitating migration as a coping strategy as means of preserving security and economic development in the region.